IMPATIENT
Protesters used their own riot shields against police in Yangon
Introduction PDF version
This report is written to social justice activists in an authoritarian/illiberal democraticcy regime such as those activists aligned with the Southeast Asia MilkTeaAlliance - Myanmar, Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong[27][28]. The alliance represents shared values of democracy and resistance to authoritarianism. It also applies to those activists with similar aims in other countries which are not yet full democracies such as the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam or Indonesia[26][23].
For the case of Singapore, there are numerous instruments available to the state that may limit the pace of change of policy and political power structures by restricting civil liberties and political expression. Examples include the Societies Act, Public Order Act, Broadcasting Authority Act, Protection of Online Falsehoods and Manipulations Act and the Internal Security Act[31][34][35]. According to the UN Human Rights Council, the limited space for expression and low threshold for prosecution of offenses under these laws is a noteworthy concern by international standards[31]. As recently as 2020 one activist, Jolovan Wham was convicted under the Public Order Act for taking a solo photo of himself holding up a placard of a smiley face[36]. Historical examples of activism, “Pragmatic resistance”, such as the campaign to decriminalize homosexuality[32], have been characterized as working mostly within the limited democratic system while selectively looking for reforms and opportunities where they are safe on an incremental basis.
Impatient social justice activists in illiberal democracies
This report is written to those activists who are critical of the limited effectiveness, scale and speed of the strategy and are open to learning from the successes and failures of social movements in other countries past and present which have embraced more high stakes, confrontational strategies and aimed for broader transformational changes on shorter timescales. The intended audience for this report are impatient activists who are:
Interested in substantial, rather than incremental institutional change
Dissatisfied with the outcomes in policy reforms from the conventional “Pragmatic resistance” strategies
Open to learning how to apply success lessons from case studies of other social movements in other locations both ongoing and from the recent past.
There are several cases of successful nonviolent pro-democracy regime changes to draw from not only recently 2011 Arab Spring in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya[15][16][17][18][19][20] but also in the late 1980’s 1986 People Power movement from the Philippines[4][5][6], 1987 June struggle in South Korea[1][2][3] and the Eastern Europe revolutions which includes the Polish labor movement Solidarity[7][8][9][10]11][12][13][14]. Any of these cases could be instructive; there are lessons common to all of them. The Solidarity movement is selected as a starting point.
DIMRAND-WUNC
A summary of the theory and practice of collective action for social justice in illiberal democracies
Full DRAFT report
This first report introduces the theory of social movements as a form of political contest when a broad coalition of ordinary members of the public brings a challenge to an elite authority. These concepts provide an interpretive framework to explain cause and effect in social movements for application to the case study of Solidarity in Poland in the 1980s as well as contemporary pro-democracy movements in authoritarian regimes. Drawing from several theories and sources, three recurring themes are identified as open questions for theory and practitioners.
What are the determinants of success or failure?
To what extent can outcomes be attributed to the effort and skills of the activists?
What are the considerations for prioritizing building vs utilizing legitimacy?
The determining factors in the political contest are a combination of activists' strategic decisions and situational opportunities. The report summarizes the research on social movements as a legitimacy contest between activists and their status quo opponents measured in four “WUNC” dimensions:
Worthiness, Unity, Numbers and Commitment
and the seven strategic arenas, “DIMRAND”:
Demands, Institutions, Meaning, Recruitment, Activity, Networks, and Disruption,
that activists utilize to advance their position in that contest. The end of the report offers a sample of open strategic questions and themes from the report for impatient activists in Singapore to consider.
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OPEN QUESTIONS
SOLIDARITY
A case study in labor organizing in an illiberal democracy
The case could not be more compelling for more ambitious climate action policy and a just transition to the sustainable economy[29]. Yet the pace of change for reducing carbon emissions and poverty is slow in Southeast Asia[24][25][29]. The electoral changes in the US in 2020[30] demonstrate the potential for paradigm shifts in policy through the democratic process, but what strategies and solutions do activists have in illiberal democracies? This case study looks to lessons from the success story of the grassroots, bottom-up Solidarity labor movement in transitioning from authoritarian to democratic regime in Poland from 1970 to 1989
A STORY OF SUCCESS
Gdańsk, 1988. Strike at the Lenin shipyard, photo: Chris Niedenthal / promotional materials
On December 13, 1981, martial law was declared in Poland[9][11]. Through the winter of 1981 and 1982 the Polish military initiated an aggressive campaign to disarm and dissolve the popular Solidarity free trade labor organization. They put the leader Lech Wałęsa under house arrest and even banned participation in free trade unions[9][11][13]. For almost a decade the organization continued to survive, resisting the authoritarian regime[9][11][13]. The movement would eventually prevail in a second growth wave starting in 1988 and ultimate transformational political victory permanently removing the authoritarian regime from Poland in the 1989 elections[9][11][13].
LEARN
Warsaw Dec 1981 Marshal law declared. Photo credit : Chris Niedenthal
The intended outcome of the DIMRAND-WUNC report is to identify practical lessons for the unique challenges faced by the impatient activists. Four focus areas are envisioned :
External conditions: What were the external conditions that influenced the success or failure of the movement, moving it through critical milestones and setbacks?
Intentional effort : Resource mobilization theory: Critical analysis of the movement’s success or failure overall, and for selected milestones using the Resource Mobilization Theory (RMT) framework[21][22]. Assess how well resource mobilization is an explanatory variable for describing how the movement achieved its success by separating the two enquiries (movement strategy → (1) resource mobilization → (2) success outcomes): how well the movement strategy led to resource mobilization and to what extent the mobilized resources predicted success outcomes?
Legitimacy: How did the movement build and sustain the legitimacy of their own movement and compete with that of the status quo power structures (the target)?
Navigating in an authoritarian regime: How did the movement adapt, survive and ultimately prevail from periods of authoritarian oppression?
The intention is to understand the structure and tactics of the opposition and lessons from the early formation stage may be more directly applicable to the current situation faced by the impatient activists in similar modern day illiberal democracies around the world.
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